The most important thing to remember when playing Bluff is the dice odds.
You have a 1/6 chance on a die being a star and a 1/3 chancd of it “being equivalent to” a number 1-5.
They reason for the 1/3 chance is stars are wild and count for any bid.
Always check how many dice you can’t see and remember that on average 1/6 of that amount will be stars
and 1/3 of that amount will a number 1-5. This will give you a general idea if a bid is below/above average.
For example: Let say you have 4 dice and the other players have 12 dice total.
And you roll a 1 2 5 *
On average, the 12 other dice, will have 2 5s and 2 stars.
Adding this to your 1 5 and 1 star, makes a bid of 6 5’s an average bid. Likewise
3 stars or 5 4’s would also be an average bid.
If you are making a bid and the amount is far above average, you are taking a risk. This might mean it’s time
to do a reroll, the increase the average and make you bid less risky.
One question I her often is “When is a good time to bluff?”
Bluffing is more an art than a science. Knowing your other players is very important.
However, I can give you a few guidelines.
When making below average bids, the player after you will be reluctant to call the bid
since it has a high likehood of being correct. It’s therefore reasonably safe to bluff when making
below average bids.
Bluffing stars when you have none can be extremely dangerous.
If the player going after you has a very high percentage of the dice remaining, bluffing
is dangerous. Likewise, when the player going after you has very few dice, bluffing
is safer.
When you have lots of stars, It’s no so good to bluff, since your stars will be useful
for any bid made.
Lastly, a very general rule. I prefer to bluff when I have a weak hand and not bluff
when I have a strong hand. I call this bluff from weakness, bid from strength.
What’s a weak hand? well 1 2 3 4 5 is pretty weak. With this hand
I don’t have many good options, so bluffing looks like a good option.
What’s a strong hand? well 4 5 5 * * is rather strong, I wouldn’t be
bluffing with this. I don’t need to.